Reversal setups usually have several things in common: stretched momentum, price far from its average, and a first turning bar. The trend reversal probability indicator scores those four pieces, weights them, and turns the total into a number from 0 to 100. A mark prints when the score clears the trigger.
This build ships as a compiled .ex4 for MT4 and .ex5 for MT5; the screenshots below come from EURUSD H1.
| Platforms | MT4 (.ex4) + MT5 (.ex5) |
|---|---|
| Chart window | Main price chart |
| Plots | 3: Reversal Reference, Reversal Buy, Reversal Sell |
| Alerts | popup, push notification, email, sound |
| Inputs | 19 |
What the Trend Reversal Probability Indicator shows
One reference line and two marks on price.
`Reversal Reference` traces dodger blue at width 2.
`Reversal Buy` prints lime with arrow 233.
`Reversal Sell` prints red with arrow 234.
A comment shows the latest bull and bear scores.
`InpArrowGapATR` `0.6` sets the mark gap.
- Reversal Reference: line, dodger blue, width 2
- Reversal Buy: arrow, lime, width 2, arrow code 233
- Reversal Sell: arrow, red, width 2, arrow code 234
How a value appears
The reference
`InpRefPeriod` `50` with `InpMethod` `1` draws an exponential average. Distance from it, in ranges, is the stretch.
The four parts
RSI below 50, stochastic below 50, stretch below the reference up to `InpStretchMax` `3.0` ranges, and a higher close each add to the bull score.
The trigger
Each part scores from 0 to 1 and carries its weight. A total of `InpThreshold` `55.0` or more, above the bear score, prints a buy.
On a live chart
A higher score means more pieces agree.
The score is a checklist, not a probability.
Marks need the score and the turn together.
`InpCooldownBars` `6` spaces same-side marks.
Readings come from the bar before the mark.
Warm-up needs about fifty bars.
Alert channels in this build: popup, push notification, email and sound.
A score past the trigger sends a message that includes the score itself. `InpEnableAlerts` is the master switch; the popup and the sound playing `InpSoundFile` ship on, while mobile and email wait.
Every Trend Reversal Probability Indicator input
Core settings
| Setting | What it does | Default |
|---|---|---|
InpRefPeriod |
Reference period. Reference average length, `50`. | 50 |
InpMethod |
Method: 0=SMA 1=EMA 2=HMA. Reference recipe, EMA, `1`. | 1 |
InpRSIPeriod |
RSI period. RSI length, `14`. | 14 |
InpStochPeriod |
Stochastic period. Stochastic length, `14`. | 14 |
InpATRPeriod |
ATR period. | 14 |
InpStretchMax |
ATR stretch normaliser. Stretch that scores full marks, `3.0`. | 3.0 |
InpThreshold |
Reversal probability trigger (0-100). Score that triggers a mark, `55.0`. | 55.0 |
InpWeightRSI |
Weight: RSI extreme. Weight of the RSI part, `1.0`. | 1.0 |
InpWeightStoch |
Weight: Stochastic extreme. | 1.0 |
InpWeightStretch |
Weight: ATR stretch from reference. | 1.0 |
InpWeightTurn |
Weight: momentum turn. Weight of the turning bar, `1.0`. | 1.0 |
InpCooldownBars |
Bars between signals. Bars between marks, `6`. | 6 |
Display settings
| Setting | What it does | Default |
|---|---|---|
InpArrowGapATR |
Arrow offset (ATR mult). | 0.6 |
Alert settings
| Setting | What it does | Default |
|---|---|---|
InpEnableAlerts |
Master alert switch. | on |
InpEnablePopup |
Popup alert. | on |
InpEnablePush |
Push notification. | off |
InpEnableEmail |
Email alert. | off |
InpEnableSound |
Sound alert. Sound, ships on, `true`. | on |
InpSoundFile |
Sound file. | alert.wav |
Markets that suit it
A weighted checklist adapts to any liquid chart. EURUSD H1 is the reference chart, with a few marks a day. On M15 lower weights on stretch reduce noise. On D1 scores past 55 are rarer and more meaningful.
Limits worth knowing
The name says probability; the math is a score.
Equal weights treat weak and strong pieces alike.
A turning bar is easy to satisfy.
The sound route ships on.
Copy the compiled Trend Reversal Probability Indicator file into your MQL4/Indicators folder, and the MT5 build into MQL5/Indicators, then restart the terminal and drag it onto a chart. The step-by-step guide with screenshots is at how to install MT4 and MT5 indicators.
Background reading on the method behind the Trend Reversal Probability Indicator: Mean Reversion at Investopedia, Relative strength index on Wikipedia.
Download the Trend Reversal Probability Indicator for MT4 and MT5
The zip holds the compiled Trend Reversal Probability Indicator build for MT4 and MT5, plus a short README. Compiled files only, no source. Enter your email below and the download link arrives in your inbox.
Download this indicator free
Enter your email and the file is yours. You also get the full MT4 and MT5 library.
FAQ
Is InpThreshold 55.0 a real probability?
No. Four checks produce a weighted score that runs from 0 to 100. A higher number means more of the checks agree, not a measured chance that price will turn.
What does InpStretchMax 3.0 mean for the score?
Price three ranges below the reference scores the full stretch point. Half that distance scores half a point, and price above the reference scores nothing on the bull side.
Can I drop a part with InpWeightTurn?
Yes. Set any weight to zero and that part stops counting. The build divides by the sum of the weights, so the score still runs from 0 to 100.
Why read the oscillators on the bar before the Reversal Buy?
The build judges the setup on the previous closed bar and the turn on the current one. That keeps the mark from firing on the same bar that did the stretching.
Are results guaranteed?
No. Trading involves risk. Results are not guaranteed; past performance is not indicative of future results. Use the Trend Reversal Probability Indicator as one input. Always backtest before trading live.
Category: this is part of our Trend collection. Browse more Trend for MetaTrader, or explore every MT4 indicator and MT5 indicator on the site.
External references
- The core method is documented in Foreign exchange fraud on Wikipedia.
- Additional market context is at Stockcharts High Low Percent at StockCharts ChartSchool.
About the author
Written by Dominic Walsh, a Forex trader and MT4/MT5 indicator, Expert Advisor and script developer. Every tool on forexmt4systems.com is tested on live charts before release and ships with ready-to-use compiled MT4 (.ex4) and MT5 (.ex5) files. Learn more about the trader and developer behind this site.
How we build, test and correct every tool: Editorial & Testing Policy. Trading carries risk; see the disclaimer.